This ridiculous xG malarky, what actually does it mean

[erimus74]

We have shots on target, shots off target, possession etc, etc

What does it actually stand for, how do they gauge an xG, I've googled it & still cant make out exactly how they come to the conclusion that its an xG or not, is one extra stat that needn't not be there, over stats with meaningless stats, file under VAR as something not really needed

[BoroRedKen]

"Expected Goals".

Some gymnastic mental arithmetic due to the things you mentioned and it all adds up to what they "expect the goal count to be".

Love it when you get xG 1.76.....

On their bike!!

  

[New Division]

Modern football is rubbish

[Hound]

Sunderland 1, shoulda scored 0
Middlesbrough 0, shoulda scored 2


 

[BoroRedKen]

Sunderland 1, shoulda scored 0
Middlesbrough 0, shoulda scored 2


 

Exactly that!

 

[Nosmo-King]

Brings some comfort to those poor souls wanting to explain away abysmal performances that fail to deliver a win........

[Too Much Perspective]

My 12-year old will sometimes mention so-and-so's XG, and I just nod like I understand what's going on.
Doing that a lot these days.
   

[erimus74]

"Expected Goals".

Some gymnastic mental arithmetic due to the things you mentioned and it all adds up to what they "expect the goal count to be".

Love it when you get xG 1.76.....

On their bike!!

  

Exactly Ken, two things though & remember, Cloughy kept telling us football is a simple game, looking at xG its like a maths lesson

A) What does 1.76 mean to the average man in the street, I havent got a clue & I've watched the game since the late 60's

B) What constitutes a chance of a  goal, is it when the attacking team enter the box, or round the keeper, what are they basing xG on?

Do you get a trophy at the end of the season if you finish top of xG, 😉

[erimus74]

My 12-year old will sometimes mention so-and-so's XG, and I just nod like I understand what's going on.
Doing that a lot these days.
   

😂

[erimus74]

Sunderland 1, shoulda scored 0
Middlesbrough 0, shoulda scored 2


 

😂

[erimus74]

Its more like a scorechart in a round of golf, I just haven't got a clue how you're suppose to interpret if it's good or what, does it mean something other than a secret code



Sorry but its just crackers, the advert sums it up perfectly

[ZiEgE]

It means fuck all.

It's a system know nothing cunts created to make their bullshit predictions seem less bullshit.

For rara idiots like the Boro bellend podcast to debate add infinium.

How many points do you get for xG?

[erimus74]

It means fuck all.

It's a system know nothing cunts created to make their bullshit predictions seem less bullshit.

For rara idiots like the Boro bellend podcast to debate add infinium.

How many points do you get for xG?

Simple thing is show the league table, stats if needed shots ongoal/ missed/scored

Why does someone have to bring something to the table were you, not only need a degree to understand but, its open to debate whether a team will score or balloon it over the bar

[TommyDickfingers]

It's all a load of gubbins invented so people can over analyse what is a simple game and hence make more money from it.

Over the last season and the start of this season I'm finding myself get less and less interested in football, I'm a ST holder but have given up on midweek home games and used to go to 50-75% of away games.........my last away game was Millwall in March 2022, just can't be arsed with it all.

Might be old age but I suspect it's more down to ramming everything down your throat...........I even long for the days where I used to walk hungover to the paper shop on a Sunday morning and first page I'd open would be the results page, you've now got running commentary all around you when at the match of who is winning/losing etc

And yes I am turning into Victor Meldrew

[Too Much Perspective]

I even long for the days where I used to walk hungover to the paper shop on a Sunday morning and first page I'd open would be the results page, you've now got running commentary all around you when at the match of who is winning/losing etc

I was at a wedding a while back and I met an old bloke who used to cover North East football for a Glasgow paper. When he was doing Boro, he said he'd jog down to the Yellow Rose to phone in his match report in time for the late final. 

[Nosmo-King]

On the subject of papers I used to love the Sports Gazette. Getting the bus back to Guisborough, after the match,walked to the local newsagent and it was only around 10 minutes for them to arrive.

Was part and parcel of the home game package. Happy days.

[John Trebor]

xG and xGA have been used for years by coaching teams and their analysts. Originally developed in 1993 to analyse the impact of artificial pitches, it helps coaches identify specific areas of weakness and strengths - for individual players and the team as a whole. It is only recently that the figures have become commonly used by pundits and fans.

As I understand it.....
Sometimes we watch a match and think a player has missed a sitter that he should always score, whereas the analysis compares it to thousands of chances in similar positions. It takes into account the position of players, speed of ball, angle of pass, height of ball etc. Although it doesn't take into account the skill of the player with the chance.

It might turn out that the chance is only scored a quarter of the time in those circumstances - giving an xG of 0.25.
4 of those chances in a game gives an xG of 4 x 0.25 = 1.
A penalty has an xG of 0.79 - as they are scored 79 times out of 100.

It is actually pretty accurate, but as I said, it is more for the benefit of coaching analysts than for fans.

p.s.
Jones's miss against Huddersfield last year had an xG of 3 - as he should have scored it every time and twice on a Sunday.

[TommyDickfingers]

xG and xGA have been used for years by coaching teams and their analysts. Originally developed in 1993 to analyse the impact of artificial pitches, it helps coaches identify specific areas of weakness and strengths - for individual players and the team as a whole. It is only recently that the figures have become commonly used by pundits and fans.

As I understand it.....
Sometimes we watch a match and think a player has missed a sitter that he should always score, whereas the analysis compares it to thousands of chances in similar positions. It takes into account the position of players, speed of ball, angle of pass, height of ball etc. Although it doesn't take into account the skill of the player with the chance.

It might turn out that the chance is only scored a quarter of the time in those circumstances - giving an xG of 0.25.
4 of those chances in a game gives an xG of 4 x 0.25 = 1.
A penalty has an xG of 0.79 - as they are scored 79 times out of 100.

It is actually pretty accurate, but as I said, it is more for the benefit of coaching analysts than for fans.

p.s.
Jones's miss against Huddersfield last year had an xG of 3 - as he should have scored it every time and twice on a Sunday.

Yep, total bollocks then 🤣